Smoke Scout - The pitch

If there was a service that would cost $100 but on average save you $1000, you would jump at the offer. That’s what Smoke Scout is offering wildfire-threatened states across the country. For roughly 10% of the cost of typical damage done by wildfires, Smoke Scout will monitor at-risk areas around the clock and typically report outbreaks within half an hour of the fire’s start. Combining Smoke Scout with fast fire suppression could save states hundreds of millions in damaged property.

Smoke Scout - The fun part

I see two really fun parts about Smoke Scout. First, this is an interesting design challenge. The Smoke Scout UAV needs to have large enough surface area on the wings to collect solar energy to keep aloft day and night.  The UAV will also need to have a payload capacity of about a hundred pounds, almost all of which will be used to carry the fire sensing optics. The UAV also needs to be durable and not require frequent maintenance.

The other thing I find fun about this idea is the image processing and sensor development. The better job you do at image processing, the less optics you need, which saves weight and cost. So, building prototypes and spending a while getting the image processing close to perfect would pay for itself many times over later.

Smoke Scout - The growth potential

If Smoke Scout grew nationwide, it would have have over $2 billion in revenue and $1 billion profit. It it went global that number could go up by another factor of 5 or 10.

Smoke Scout - The monetization

Smoke Scout would provide the UAVs and operation as a service to states. Smoke scout would charge per square mile surveyed per year. I think $10,000 per square mile is about right. If Colorado wanted to always cover 5% of their state, it would cost the state $50 million a year, about $25 million of that would be profit for Smoke Scout. I’m assuming that the operation and maintenance cost would be $5 million. Even at a cost of $50 million a year, Smoke Scout pays for itself 10 times over.

Smoke Scout - The idea

Even the largest wildfires start from a single small source. If the fire can be identified early, within the first hour, then it would be much easier to put it out. The best way to keep an eye on large swaths of land is with an army of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The UAVs would be something like the Silent Falcon, except about two or three times larger. With that additional size would come more payload weight for sensors and rechargeable batteries as well as a large wingspan covered completely with solar cells that would allow the UAV to stay airborne for months on end. The solar cells would be large enough to keep the UAV afloat and to charge the batteries, so it could stay up at night. The UAVs would communicate what they were sensing with ground-based control stations that would also give the UAVs their future flight paths.

There would have to be enough UAVs to cover the areas most in danger of wildfires. Each UAV would be able to see about one mile in each direction. If each UAV followed a track as shown below, the loop would be 72 miles, which could be accomplished in an hour and allow the UAV to sense the state of 144 square miles of ground.

So, it would take 900 UAVs to blanket Colorado. Realistically, only small percentage of the state is at high risk for wildfires at any given time. If only 5% is at risk, then only 50 UAVs would be required to keep the state safe. Each UAV would cost about $400,000 or $20 million to cover the entire state.

After a fire is detected, airplanes loaded with water or fire suppressant need to be scrambled to contain the blaze. These plans can fly at over 500 miles per hour, which means that a fire in practically any part of the state could be reached within 20 minutes of takeoff. If firefighting planes are takeoff ready within 10 minutes, then a fire could be suppressed within at most an hour and a half.

Now, there are already satellites that try to detect wildfires. The problem with existing solutions is that the satellites are in lower earth orbit (LEO) and only sweep over a particular area once a day or every other day. Satellites in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) would be able to stay over a single state; however, satellites in GEO would be dozens of miles further away from Earth making sensing the fires nearly impossible.

Smoke Scout - The motivation

In the summer of 2012, wildfires in Colorado burned nearly 4,500 acres and caused roughly half a billion dollars in property damage. That summer was extremely dry in Colorado, and due to the effects of climate change, summers may become even drier in some regions. The key to preventing extreme destruction from wildfires is to stop them early, before they can get out of control.